Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 09 1411 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Nov 2013	144	022
10 Nov 2013	144	005
11 Nov 2013	146	004

Bulletin

Only three weak C-class flares were reported since the previous bulletin. However, Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We therefore expect the flaring activity to continue on the M-level, with an X-class flare being possible but unlikely. Due to the position of the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) right to the west of the solar central meridian, a warning condition for a proton event is maintained. Currently the proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is slowly growing, but this growth is most probably due to earlier eastern hemisphere events and is not expected to lead to a proton event. Since late November 8, the Earth is inside a region of elevated interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude (up to 17 nT), probably representing an ICME. The corresponding solar CME is not clear at the moment. The solar wind speed remained low (around 400-450 km/s), so only active (K = 4, Dourbes, IZMIRAN, NOAA) to minor storm (K = 5, IZMIRAN) geomagnetic conditions were reported. Currently the solar wind speed reaches 530 km/s, and the IMF magnitude is still increased (around 10 nT), so active geomagnetic conditions are still possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	172
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	100 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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