Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 19 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Nov 2013	160	007
20 Nov 2013	158	007
21 Nov 2013	155	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1893 produced an X1.0 flare on Nov. 19, peaking at 1026 UT. It was accompanied by a metric type II burst, and an EUV coronal wave. A CME was associated with this event, as observed by COR2 A, but only one image is available and its speed is currently unknown. A preliminary analysis, which will be updated as new information comes in, makes this event unlikely to be geoeffective. Currently there is no consequence on the proton flux, but a rise in coming hours is not impossible. We foresee active conditions to prevail for the next 48 hours, with risk of M flares from NOAA ARs 1893 and 1897. NOAA AR 1893 developed a delta configuration (which probably explains the X flare of this morning), and an isolated X class flare is not excluded. Until further analysis is performed on the CME linked to the X class flare of this morning, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail for the next 48 hours. A CME spotted on the South-East limb on Nov. 19, around 0430 UT (LASCO C2) appears to be backsided. Current interplanetary conditions as measured by the ACE spacecraft are very quiet.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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