Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 21 1222 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Nov 2013	140	001
22 Nov 2013	138	001
23 Nov 2013	138	001

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1893 produced a M1.2 flare on November 21, peaking at 1111 UT. Very few information is currently available on this event, but it seems that, besides a weak type III burst no other radio emission is associated with it. Coronagraphic observations are not yet available, but SDO data hint at a CME signature. Owing to the position of AR 1893 on the west limb, a CME, if confirmed, would very likely not be geoeffective. We foresee mostly eruptive conditions for the next 48 hours, with C class flares possible from NOAA ARs 1893, 1897 and 1899. A small sunspot group emerged north of AR 1899, but it is too soon to evaluate its flaring capacity for the forecast period. An extra isolated M flare is not completely excluded from NOAA AR 1893 before it rotates behind the west limb. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. All CMEs observed in the past 24 hours appear to be non geoeffective, including a partial halo CME, observed by LASCO on Nov. 21 at 0125 UT (backside event).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	074
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	056 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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