Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 December 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Dec 07 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Dec 2013	155	011
08 Dec 2013	155	011
09 Dec 2013	153	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1909 produced an M1.2-flare peaking at 07:29UT. A plasma eruption was seen in this neighbourhood on December 5 around 21UT. An unstable filament in the neighbourhood of an active region is a recipe of disaster. The curve for the background X-ray radiation is situated near the top/bottom of the B/C level. The chances for more M-flares are around 30%. The fast stream linked with the coronal hole that approached the central meridian on December 3 might arrive late today and introduce unsettled/active conditions: K=3 up to 4. The filament eruption on December 5, around 21UT might have a glancing blow. There is no data of SOHO/LASCO at that time. The amount of available STEREO A data is also limited. A first estimate gives a speed of around 500 km/s. The shock might arrive late on December 9.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 062, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	132
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	069 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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