Viewing archive of Monday, 3 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 03 1313 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Feb 2014	195	005
04 Feb 2014	200	003
05 Feb 2014	195	003

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) continue to grow in number of sunspots and in area, keeping respectively beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta configurations of their photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the M3.1 flare peaking at 18:11 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 28. We expect continuing flaring activity on the M-level, with an isolated X-class flare being probable, especially in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967). Due to the position of the sunspot group 28 close to the solar central meridian, a CME associated with a flare in this active region may arrive at the Earth. A major CME in this sunspot group may lead to a proton event, so we issue a warning condition. A filament eruption starting today at 05:44 UT to the south of the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) seems to have led only to a narrow CME. The partial halo CME first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view yesterday at 08:48 UT was a far side CME, so it will not arrive at the Earth. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 360 km/s) solar wind flow with a slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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