Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 08 1506 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Feb 2014	175	025
09 Feb 2014	172	015
10 Feb 2014	167	006

Bulletin

The flaring activity of the Sun decreased significantly. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C3.0 flare peaking yesterday at 14:52 UT in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967), which maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Catania sunspot groups 27 and 36 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1974 respectively) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. We expect flaring activity at the C-level with isolated M-class flares. Due to position of the Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) in the western hemisphere, a major CME in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition. After the arrival of an interplanetary shock yesterday (16:18 UT at ACE, 16:28 UT at SOHO), the Earth is inside a post-shock solar wind flow. Currently the solar wind speed is around 450 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 10 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz was fluctuating, and K index reached 4 during four intervals (as reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA). The arrival of the ICME-driven shock associated with the partial halo CME first detected by SOHO/LASCO at 16:36 UT on February 4 is possible later today. Intervals of active (K = 4) or, less likely, minor storm (K = 5) conditions are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	122
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	112 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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