Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 15 1226 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Feb 2014	167	017
16 Feb 2014	164	014
17 Feb 2014	158	012

Bulletin

There are currently seven numbered sunspot groups on the solar disc, and the most complex one is the Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974) which maintained beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Two M-class flares were reported in past 24 hours and all of them originated from this active region. The strongest one was M1.8 flare peaking at 12:40 UT on February 14. The flare was associated with CME of angular width of about 60 degrees. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The background X-ray flux decreased to a high B-class level. We expect C-class flares and M-class flares, the isolated X-class flare is also still possible but not very probable. Due to the close to the West solar limb position of the Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974) we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. Earth is still inside a slow solar wind with the speed of 350 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable with the current value of about 5 nT. The fast flow, associated with the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere (between N20 and N40) which reached the central meridian on February 13 is expected at the Earth late on February 16 or early on February 17. We expect active to minor storm conditions today and tomorrow due to arrival of CMEs from February 11, February 12 and February 13.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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