Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 18 1324 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Feb 2014	152	007
19 Feb 2014	153	007
20 Feb 2014	155	008

Bulletin

Flaring activity has been in the C-class level in past 24h. NOAA AR 1976 produced the strongest one, a C4.7 flare with peak at 01:33 UT. The complex formed by NOAA ARs 1976, 1977 and 1980 continues to produce C-class flares. NOAA AR 1974 is rotating over the west limb, but has still potential to produce M-class flares. Therefore the warning condition for energetic protons is maintained. A full halo CME erupted at 01:25 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2) as a consequence of a filament eruption in the southeast of the visible solar disc. The bulk of the CME is directed to the southeast, but it can reach the Earth. The calculated speed is 663 km/s, giving an arrival time of February 20, at 20:00 UT (with a ~12h error margin). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so. There is still a small possibility that the CME from February 13 arrives to the Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	131
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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