Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Apr 19 1330 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Apr 2014	170	016
20 Apr 2014	173	009
21 Apr 2014	170	032

Bulletin

Ten sunspot groups were reported by NOAA today. Two of them (NOAA ARs 2036 and 2037) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (although the NOAA AR 2037 is strongly decaying), and NOAA AR 2035 has beta-gamma-delta. Since yesterday's M-flare, only weak C-class flares were detected, the strongest one being the C2.1 flare peaking at 03:26 UT today in a tiny sunspot group at S19E66 that seems to start emerging. A number of C-class flares was also observed in the sunspot group that just appeared from behind the south-east solar limb (returning NOAA AR 2021). We expect further flaring activity on the C-level, with a good chance for another M-class event. The proton event produced by the halo CME of April 18 is still going on. The solar wind speed is currently around 500 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is around 7-8 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz fluctuates between positive and negative values, so the geomagnetic situation remains mostly quiet, with only occasional intervals of K = 4 reported by Dourbes, IZMIRAN and NOAA. The geomagnetic conditions will probably be quiet to unsettled until April 21, when we expect the arrival of the ICME (or the shock driven by it) corresponding to the halo CME observed on April 18. A geomagnetic storm (with K index probably up to 6) may result.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 124, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Apr 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	136 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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