Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 June 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jun 14 1416 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jun 2014	153	010
15 Jun 2014	150	007
16 Jun 2014	147	009

Bulletin

The strongest flare reported in last 24 hours was the C9.0 flare (peaked at 20:17 UT) on June 13. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) and was possibly associated with the CME (based on SDO/AIA data). More will be reported as soon as coronagraph data become available. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in last 24 hours. We expect C-class and possibly also M-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is currently 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has presently value of about 4 nT. During last 24 hours the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating with the short intervals of negative values of about -7 nT, which resulted in unsettled to active geomagnetic condition (K=3, 4 as reported by local stations Dourbes and Izmiran). The arrival of the fast flow associated with the small low latitude coronal hole (between S20 and S40) which reached the central meridian late on June 12, although not very probable, can be expected at the Earth in the morning of June 16. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with a partial halo CME from June 12, is possible but not very probable in the evening of June 15. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and expect to remain so in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	128 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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