Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 July 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jul 03 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jul 2014	182	008
04 Jul 2014	190	005
05 Jul 2014	196	004

Bulletin

Only 4 C-class events were observed over the last 24 hours. The strongest reached a maximum of C2.6 at 03:59UT (3 July) and originated from a region just behind the Sun's east limb. It was associated to a fast, not Earth-directed CME (about 1400 km/s). Of the 9 visible sunspot groups, NOAA 2104 remains the largest and most complex region, still having a magnetic delta. However, it did not produce a C-class flare. NOAA 2100, 2106 and 2107 produced each a C1-flare. The long filaments resp. near NOAA 2106, about 20 degrees west of NOAA 2107, and in the southwest quadrant, are still present but -for the moment- stable. C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare. A solar wind structure arrived at ACE near 23:30UT. Wind speed jumped from about 320 to 350 km/s. Bz turned southward around 02:30UT and remained between -4 and -8 nT for nearly 9 hours before returning to positive values. The impact on the geomagnetic field was minimal, as only quiet geomagnetic conditions have been recorded so far (K < 4). A small equatorial coronal hole that passed the central meridian on 30 June may affect Earth on 4 July. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with locally a brief active episode possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jul 2014

Wolf number Catania	231
10cm solar flux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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