Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 July 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6/2B event observed at
08/1620Z from Region 2113 (N10E48) with associated type II and type IV
radio sweeps. Initial observations showed an associated CME over the
northeast limb which does not appear to be earthward-directed. There are
currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at
07/2310Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2213Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/0542Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels on days
two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 201 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 200/190/180 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 011/012-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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