Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 July 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jul 24 1228 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Jul 2014	109	006
25 Jul 2014	115	007
26 Jul 2014	120	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been mainly quiet with the background X-ray flux remaining between the B2 and B3 level. Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA AR 2121) however did produce a C2.1 flare peaking at 1:51 UT. A chance for a further occasional C-flare from AR 2121 remains and also the probability for C-flares from Catania group 24 (NOAA AR 2123) has increased. With a reasonable full disc chance for C flares the all quiet alert status is therefore lifted, though at most an occasional low C level flare is likely. No significant Earth directed CME's were observed. A transequatorial coronal hole crossed the central meridian around UT midnight July 23 to 24. It is likely to influence the solar wind conditions near Earth starting late July 26, early July 27. Solar wind speed was first stable in the beginning of the reporting period around 320 km/s and later picked up to enhanced values of around 380 km/s presently. The total magnetic field also increased from being stable between 3-4nT just before the reporting period to fluctuating between 2nT and 7nT during the past 24 hours with Bz variable between +-5nT. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp = 1-2 and local K Dourbes = 0-2) with a 6 hour period of unsettled conditions before UT midnight (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes = 3). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue under the influence of a coronal hole stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 048, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Jul 2014

Wolf number Catania	079
10cm solar flux	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	048 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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