Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 11 1347 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Oct 2014	115	009
12 Oct 2014	112	007
13 Oct 2014	113	007

Bulletin

Just few sunspot groups are currently visible on the solar disc. The only C-class flare observed during last 24 hours was the long duration C3.0 flare (peaked at 16:47 UT), on October 10. Concurrently with the flare which occurred in between two active regions, NOAA AR 2184 and 2182, eruption of a large filament (situated at about S30 W45) was observed. The associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:12 UT. The CME had angular width of about 200 degrees and was propagating with the projected speed of about 400 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible in the evening of October 14. We expect only occasional C-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is about 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic filed is still fluctuating with the current magnitude of about 9 nT. Due to the long negative interval of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (with the value of about -7 nT) we had unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes) this morning. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	025 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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