Viewing archive of Monday, 20 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 20 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Oct 2014	178	018
21 Oct 2014	181	016
22 Oct 2014	183	016

Bulletin

Six sunspot groups are reported by Catania today. The main source of the solar flaring activity is the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) that is growing in size and complexity. Now it has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. After yesterday's X1.1 flare, the strongest flare was the M3.9 flare peaking at 09:11 UT today. This flare was not accompanied by a CME. We expect more flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with intermediate speeds (around 500-550 km/s). This flow might be associated with a narrow low-latitude coronal hole that passed the solar central meridian on October 17-18. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude was elevated (up to 9 nT), and the IMF was directed predominantly southward during the last several hours. Intervals of active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) were reported by Dourbes and NOAA. We expect quiet to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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