Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 12 1208 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Nov 2014	151	010
13 Nov 2014	160	010
14 Nov 2014	165	006

Bulletin

There are currently four numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc. The solar activity remains low with only few C-class flares reported during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was a C6.3 flare on November 11 (peak at 17:20 UT), originating from the NOAA AR 2205. This active region maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospehric magnetic field and therefore still has the possibility for producing C-class and M-class flares in the course of coming hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 04:36 UT on November 11, had angular width of about 200 degrees and the projected speed of about 500 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The CME was probably associated with the flare from the behind the east limb active region (possibly returning NOAA AR 2192) and it will therefore not arrive at the Earth.The NOAA AR 2205 is currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is still a bit elevated with the current value of about 560 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude of about 7nT. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the following hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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