Viewing archive of Monday, 29 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 29 1219 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Dec 2014	132	013
30 Dec 2014	131	008
31 Dec 2014	130	004

Bulletin

There are currently 7 sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Six low-level C-class flares were recorded over the observing period. NOAA 2248 produced the strongest flare (C3.3 peaking at 17:59UT). This group has some magnetic polarity mixing, just like NOAA 2251 which is also gradually increasing its sunspot area. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually increased and was slighly enhanced starting from 15:00UT. With values just below 1 pfu (21:00-24:00UT), the maximum proton flux remained well below the event threshold. A 35-degrees long, but currently stable filament is visible in the northeast solar quadrant. Further C-class flaring is expected. Solar wind speed was fluctuating between 360 and 390 km/s until about 18:00UT, when it gradually started to increase to values averaging 570 km/s around 09:30UT. Initially (15:00-22:00UT), Bz fluctuated wildly between -10 and +10 nT. After midnight, the fluctuations attenuated to values between -5 and +7 nT. Active geomagnetic conditions were recorded (Kp=4), with locally brief periods of minor geomagnetic storming (Dourbes: K=5 at 20:00UT). The source of this high speed stream (HSS) is a coronal hole that passed the CM on 22-23 December. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with an active period possible in the wake of the HSS. After that, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to resume.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	072 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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