Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 03 1220 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jan 2015	152	020
04 Jan 2015	158	034
05 Jan 2015	162	034

Bulletin

During the last 24 hours, NOAA 2253 has further increased in sunspot area and developed a mature delta structure in its leading portion. This was accompanied by an increase in flaring frequency and intensity from this region, resulting in 7 C-class flares and a rather impulsive M1.1 flare peaking at 09:47UT, the strongest event of the period. No coronal dimming or type II radioburst was observed, but further coronagraphic imagery is needed to assess any associated CME. The other regions were mostly quiet. Further M-class flaring from NOAA 2253 is likely. Solar wind speed decreased from an initial 430 km/s to 370 km/s around 01:00UT, before increasing again to values near 470 km/s at the end of the period. From 15:30UT till 00:30UT, Bz was negative with values near -10 nT. From then on, Bz fluctuated wildly between -10 and +10 nT. In Dourbes, the sustained negative Bz values resulted in mostly active geomagnetic conditions from 19:00UT till 04:00UT. Also, Kp was at minor geomagnetic storm levels (Kp=5) between 21:00UT and 24:00UT. The source of this solar wind disturbance may have been the sooner than anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from the extension of the southern polar coronal hole. During the next few days, the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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