Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 28 1223 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Jan 2015	168	015
29 Jan 2015	175	018
30 Jan 2015	180	018

Bulletin

Four C- and one M-class flare were observed over the period. The strongest event was an M1.4 flare peaking at 04:41 UT in NOAA 2268. Currently available data and imagery suggest no CME was associated to this flare. NOAA 2268 still has mixed magnetic polarities in its trailing portion. Old active region NOAA 2257 is rounding the east limb. This is a complex group, but produced only one minor C-class flare. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The x-ray background flux was mostly above the C1-level. A 20 degree long filament near the solar equator is at W55 and thus in a geoeffective position in case of eruption. Further M-class flaring is expected. Solar wind varied mostly between 440 and 500 km/s, with a peak of about 530 km/s around 03:00UT. Bz was mildly positive during the period, with negative excursions between 19:00UT and 22:00UT (-5 nT) and again between 04:00 and 08:00UT (-7 nT). Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled with locally (Dourbes) some active episodes shortly after midnight.The solar wind is expected to remain disturbed, with further influences from the CH HSS and a possible glancing blow on 30 January from the 24 January CME. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 107, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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