Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 01 1222 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Feb 2015	149	026
02 Feb 2015	145	027
03 Feb 2015	142	015

Bulletin

Only low-level C-class flares were observed during the period. NOAA 2268 produced a long duration C2.8 flare peaking at 04:36UT, and the strongest event of the period at 11:33 UT (C3.2 flare). Despite continued decay in its sunspot area, NOAA 2268 still has a mixed magnetic polarity trailing portion and showed some increased flaring activity. NOAA 2277's leading portion shows important magnetic polarity mixing, but the region remained mostly quiet. The larger than 10 MeV proton flux is back at nominal levels. C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare. Active conditions were observed in response to the arrival of the HSS from the southern polar CH around midnight. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 to just over 550 km/s at the end of the period, with Bz varying between -8 and +10 nT. Further influence of the HSS is expected over the next two days. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions, with a possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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