Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Feb 2015	145	006
06 Feb 2015	145	007
07 Feb 2015	149	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low. Most low class C-flares originated from NOAA AR 2277 (Catania groups 78, 79), with the largest event a C3.3 flare peaking at 9:53UT. Also Catania 82 (NOAA 2280) produced a C3 flare peaking at 19:12UT. Growth was observed in Catania 82 (NOAA 2280) as well as opposite polarity flux emergence in Catania 79 (the trailing part of NOAA 2277). Flaring is expected to continue at C level with just a minor chance for an isolated C flare from NOAA AR 2277 (Catania groups 78, 79). Two filament eruptions are clearly visible in SDO AIA304. A filament located north of Catania 82 (NOAA 2280) lifted off at 19:23UT followed by an eruption of a filament located east of Catania 79 around 23:09UT. Preliminary coronagraphic data show the first event to have resulted in an associated narrow northeast directed CME. We await more coronagrahic data for a proper assessment, especially concerning the second event. Solar wind speed continued to decrease continuously from around 470 km/s to about 410 km/s. The total magnetic field was initially stable around 3.5 nT becoming variable in the 0 to 5 nT range since later this morning. The Bz component was variable with downward excursions near -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local KDourbes 1-3). Further stabilisation at nominal solar wind conditions is expected with consequent quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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