Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 10 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Feb 2015	145	010
11 Feb 2015	144	007
12 Feb 2015	143	014

Bulletin

The Solar activity is currently active. Solar flaring activity was moderate. AR 2282 located on the Eastern hemisphere (E51) produced an M2.4 flare on 2015-Feb-09 peaking at 23:35. In addition, several low level C class flares occurred in the past 24 hours, originating from NOAA regions 2277, 2280, 2281 and 2282. The M flare had a halo CME associated with it. The CME was first observed in LASCO-C2 and C3 coronagraphs at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 and the main component propagated to the East with an estimated velocity of approximately 1000 km/s. Although the CME is largely moving to the East a shock front may interact with the Earth raising KP to 3-5. The flank of the CME is expected to arrive at Earth on 2015-Feb-13 00:00 UT +/- 12 hours. Flaring is expected to be active with several C class flares, and the possibility of M class flares. The Halo CME may increase the proton activity level. Solar wind speed is fairly constant, at around 450 km/s. The density has seen a small fluctuation and there appears a small rotation in the magnetic field. Total magnetic field remained constant around 6 nT. Bz was variable fluctuating with negative peaks down to -5 nT. The phi angle was positive. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 0-3). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist and possibly enhanced in 24-36 hours if the CME/shock front produced at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 interacts with the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	061 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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