Viewing archive of Friday, 6 March 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Mar 06 1223 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Mar 2015	142	011
07 Mar 2015	148	021
08 Mar 2015	152	016

Bulletin

The active region that is just starting to round the southeast limb was the source of 3 M-class flares during the period. The strongest event was an M3 flare peaking at 04:57UT. It was followed by an M1.5 flare peaking at 08:15UT. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated plane-of-the-sky speed of about 600 km/s was associated to the latter event. First seen by CACTus in LASCO/C2 imagery at 07:12UT, the bulk of the CME is directed away from Earth. Based on current imagery, the CME does not seem to have an earth-directed component. NOAA 2292 produced a complex C3 flare (around 17:20UT) while rounding the southwest limb. NOAA 2293 and three other puny sunspot groups were quiet. No earth-directed CMEs were observed. Proton flux was at nominal levels. M-class flaring is expected, with a good chance on an X-class event. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed, with Kp reaching active levels by the end of the period. Solar wind speed varied mostly between 400 and 500 km/s, Bz varied mostly between -7 and +8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from the Sun. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from a coronal hole around 07 March.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	021 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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