Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 March 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Mar 08 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Mar 2015	144	016
09 Mar 2015	147	018
10 Mar 2015	150	018

Bulletin

NOAA 2297 produced several C-class flares and one M-class event, an M9.2 flare peaking at 22:22UT (07 March). An associated type II radio burst (shock speed of 704 km/s) was observed, while the proton flux remained at nominal levels. The related partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first seen by CACTus at 22:24UT, had a width of about 230 degrees and a plane-of-the-sky speed of 672 km/s. The bulk of the CME is directed to the east and south of the ecliptic, however a glancing blow of the CME impacting on 10 March around noon (+/- 12 hours) can currently not be excluded. Minimal geomagnetic effects are expected. NOAA 2297 is a compact and magnetically complex region that has still all the potential to produce strong flares over the next few days. Associated CMEs may become more geo- effective as the region rotates further onto the disk. M-class flaring is expected, with a good chance on an X-class flare. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed. Solar wind speed has slightly increased over the period, being mostly between 500 and 600 km/s. Bz oscillated between -6 and +7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from the Sun. A negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH) will reach the central meridian on 09 March. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, under the continued influence of the high speed stream from an extended coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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