Viewing archive of Friday, 27 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/1509Z from Region 2309 (N14W79). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar,
30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
465 km/s at 26/2152Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1817Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0354Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4691 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and two (28 Mar, 29
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 138 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 017/025-017/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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