Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 June 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jun 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jun 2015	135	018
15 Jun 2015	130	013
16 Jun 2015	125	007

Bulletin

Eight C-class and one M-class flares were observed in the past period. The activity, including an M2.0 flare peaking at 00:59 UT, was mainly originating from Catania sunspot region 79 (NOAA active region 2360). Also Catania regions 87, 85 and 81 (NOAA AR 2367, 2365 and 2362 respectively) were contributing. More C-class flares are expected, with likely an isolated M-class flare. As Catania region 79 is close to the west limb, we set a warning condition for an enhancement of the proton flux. A filament in the northeast quadrant partly erupted at around 7:00 UT. Current coronagraphic images only indicate a very narrow accompanying CME (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 7:24 UT) travelling to the north. No Earth-directed CME was observed.

The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) started at 5 nT, but became more variable from 20 UT on June 13 with values in the range 5-12 nT. The solar wind speed slightly increased from the range of 440-520 km/s to currently 580 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K=2) to unsettled (K=3), with a few time slots this UT morning of active (K=4) levels. A few more time slots of active levels are expected for the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jun 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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