Viewing archive of Monday, 20 July 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jul 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Jul 2015	100	011
21 Jul 2015	099	013
22 Jul 2015	098	011

Bulletin

The long-duration C2.1 flare related to the complex filament eruption in the southwest quadrant peaked on 19 July at 10:40UT and ended at 13:02UT. The bulk of the related coronal mass ejection (CME), first seen in LASCO/C2 imagery by CACTus on 09:48UT, is directed away from Earth. However, a glancing blow from this CME cannot be ruled out and may impact Earth on 22 or early 23 July. At most active geomagnetic conditions are expected. The two currently visible sunspot regions were quiet. No C-class flares or other earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a C-class flare.

Solar wind speed further declined from 300 km/s to 270 km/s around 03:00UT, then increased to its current values between 290-300 km/s. Bz was initially very low, but has been persistently negative from about 03:00UT till 11:00UT, with maximum values near -6 nT. Bz then quickly returned to very low values. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions have been observed.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, but with a chance on an active geomagnetic episode in response to the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream of the positive transequatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Jul 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	047 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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