Viewing archive of Friday, 21 August 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Aug 21 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Aug 2015	105	009
22 Aug 2015	106	008
23 Aug 2015	107	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has increased over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dkc/Type:Beta-Gamma) showing significant flux emergence, and producing two M-class flares; a M1.2 flare peaking at 02:18 UT and a M1.4 flare peaking at 09:50 UT. The Sun also produced two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs); a slow CME first observed from beyond the south west limb at 02:48 UT on 20-Aug-2015, and a more energetic event from beyond the the north east limb at 10:12 UT on 20-Aug-2015. Both are believed to be back-sided and will not interact with the Earth. No evident Earth directed CMEs were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing C-class flares with the possibility of M and X-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from 500 km/s to 450 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength has been decreasing from 9 nT to 5 nT, and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -6 nT and +6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions varied between quiet and active over the past 24 hours, with the local K index (Dourbes) reaching 3 and the Kp index (NOAA) reaching 4 yesterday (2015-Aug-20), these conditions were possibly caused by a coronal hole (CH) located in the north-west region of the sun. The solar wind speed and IMF strength, as recorded by ACE, have both been decreasing and the geomagnetic field is expected to exhibit quiet levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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