Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 September 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Sep 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Sep 2015	120	010
30 Sep 2015	115	006
01 Oct 2015	105	007

Bulletin

Six active regions were identified on the solar disk today. Once more NOAA active regions (AR) 2422 and 2423 were the main players, producing nine M-class flares and several C-class flares. The largest one was a M7.6 flare, peaking at 14:58 UT. The flares were either impulsive or the accompanying CME was too weak and without an Earth-directed component to be of any influence for the Earth. NOAA 2422 has stretched in the E-W direction but has stopped growing in sunspot area. The region still is a beta-gamma-delta region. The evolution of NOAA 2423 is difficult to follow, but it still produced some flares. Additional M-class flares are expected, with 30% probability for an X-class flares. Due to the position of NOAA AR 2423, we retain the warning level for a potential proton event.

The Earth is still inside a slow (values between 340 and 380 km/s) solar wind flow and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remains around 5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Sep 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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