Viewing archive of Friday, 2 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 02 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Oct 2015	110	013
03 Oct 2015	110	008
04 Oct 2015	110	013

Bulletin

A dozen of C- and two M-class flares were observed, mainly originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2422. The strongest flares were the M4.5 and M5.5 flares, peaking at 13:10 UT (October 1) and 00:13 UT (October 2). Though it is difficult to investigate the properties of NOAA 2422 when approaching the West limb, it still retains its delta spots. NOAA AR 2420 and 2427 remained beta regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Flaring activity at the M-level is expected. We retain a warning condition for a proton event in case of more strong activity originating from NOAA AR 2422.

The solar wind speed was low (with values in the range of 340 to 400 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained around 10 nT, with a maximum of 13 nT, and while the Bz component went down to -11 nT. The phi angle was mainly negative (towards) till 23 UT when it turned to a positive (away) orientation. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3), with a few time slots of active conditions (K=4) between 15 and 24 UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue, with a few time slots of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	090 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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