Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Oct 2015	113	016
18 Oct 2015	117	015
19 Oct 2015	120	009

Bulletin

Nine low-level C-class flares were recorded, the strongest a C4.3 flare from NOAA 2435 peaking at 13:24UT. There may still be an active region at the southeast limb trailing NOAA 2435. NOAA 2434 lost its small delta southeast of the main spot, but developed another one to the north. NOAA 2436 shows some magnetic complexity in its trailing portion. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.

There's a chance on an M-class flare from any of the active regions NOAA 2434, 2435, or 2436.

Solar wind speed declined from 400 km/s to 350 km/s, with no sign of a high speed stream (HSS) from the trans-equatorial coronal hole (CH). Bz ranged between -5 and +7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed towards the Sun (negative). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. An equatorial CH will start transiting the central meridian later today and its HSS may affect the geomagnetic environment late on 20 or on 21 October.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an active episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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