Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 07 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Nov 2015	119	034
08 Nov 2015	121	023
09 Nov 2015	122	034

Bulletin

Seven C-class flares were observed, the strongest a C4.4 flare from NOAA 2449 peaking at 18:11UT. This active region seems to have gained somewhat in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. The other flare producing sunspot groups were NOAA 2446, NOAA 2448, and an unnumbered region south of NOAA 2449. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a slight chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Major geomagnetic storming has been observed at the planetary level (Kp = 6) during the 03-06UT and 06-09UT interval. At Dourbes, minor storming was observed between 04 and 08UT. This geomagnetic disturbance resulted from the passage of the 04 November coronal mass ejection (CME). A shock was observed by ACE near 17:35UT, with solar wind speed jumping from about 440 km/s to 560 km/s, then gradually increasing until maximum speeds near 710 km/s were reached around 03:00UT. Bz was initially wildly oscillating between -16 and +18 nT before turning to steady negative values near -11 nT starting around 02:00UT. The current solar wind speed is near 550 km/s, with Bz still at negative but less intense values around -5 nT.

For the next few days, active to minor storming episodes remain possible first in response to the waning effects from the CME passage, and then, starting late on 08 November, in response to the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and high speed stream associated with the northern coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	100
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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