Viewing archive of Monday, 30 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 30 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Nov 2015	092	026
01 Dec 2015	091	021
02 Dec 2015	090	015

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Only B-class flares have been detected. NOAA Active Regions (AR) 2458 and 2459 have been most active. There is currently a large polar coronal hole at high latitudes and a small transient coronal hole at low latitudes; both have just rotated into the Western hemisphere. No Earth directed CMEs have been detected. A partial halo CME with a speed of 370 +/- 92 km/s was detected by CACTUS on 2015-Nov-29 at 07:24 UT off the South-East limb, the CME is believed to be back-sided and not geo-effective. A second partial halo CME was observed by CACTUS at 02:48 UT on 2015-Nov-30 off the West limb with a speed of 297 +/- 53 km/s, the CME is also believed to be back-sided and will not be geo-effective. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with the possibility of C-class flares. The solar wind speed has increased over the past 24 hours from 400 km/s to 550 km/s. The total magnetic field strength remained around 10 nT yesterday (2015-Nov-29), and slowly decreased throughout the early hours of this morning. However, it increased to 15 nT between 05:00 and 09:00 UT, and has subsequently been decreasing. The Bz was mainly positive yesterday until around 17:50 UT, when a shock was observed and the field sharply dropped to around -10 nT. The Bz has been mainly negative since then, and dropped to around -15 nT between 05:00 and 09:00 UT this morning before returning to 0 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-5 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small low latitude transient coronal hole and large polar coronal hole have just rotated into the Western hemisphere and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS), combined with negative Bz, may increase geo-activity later today.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 048, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	052 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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