Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
08/1914Z from Region 2463 (S09E06). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
712 km/s at 07/2354Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0028Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0037Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Dec), active to minor
storm levels on day two (10 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 111 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 012/016-021/032-021/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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