Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan,
15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
616 km/s at 13/0908Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0040Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/0004Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3055 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 104 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-007/006-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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