Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 January 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jan 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jan 2016	100	012
20 Jan 2016	099	006
21 Jan 2016	098	014

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity remained below C-class level. The currently visible sunspot groups are small and inactive. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed.

Mostly quiet flaring conditions are expected, with only a small chance on an isolated C-class flare. A shock was observed in the solar wind speed on 18 January at 20:55UT with an abrupt increase from just below 300 km/s to 370 km/s, likely marking the arrival at Earth of the faint 14/15 January CME. Since then, solar wind speed has been mostly varying between 350 and 400 km/s. Bz oscillated between -11 and +13 nT as observed by ACE. Some more pronounced negative episodes, with values up to -10 nT, were recorded during the 21-03UT and 06-07UT intervals and again around 09:00UT. Active geomagnetic conditions were recorded during the 00-03UT interval, the remainder of the period was quiet to unsettled. A southern polar coronal hole (CH) extension at -25 to -30 degrees latitude is transiting the Central Meridian (CM).

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with an active episode possible from the waning effects of the passing CME on 19 January and from the CH high speed stream on 20-21 January.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 067, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jan 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	048 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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