Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 January 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jan 23 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Jan 2016	101	014
24 Jan 2016	104	008
25 Jan 2016	107	010

Bulletin

Over the last 24 hours, flaring activity was restricted to the B-class level. NOAA 2486 and NOAA 2487 are further decaying, with the nearby 20 degrees long filament remaining stable. An active region (old NOAA 2481) is expected to start rotating over the southeast limb during the next period. This region was responsible for most of the (backside) coronal mass ejections (CME) observed in SOHO and Stereo-A coronagraphic imagery between 18:00UT and midnight on 22 January. No earth-directed CMEs were observed.

There remains a chance on an isolated C-class flare.

The geomagnetic field continued to be influenced by the high speed stream of the southern polar coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed declined from an initial value around 500 km/s, to 470 km/s around 05:30UT, when it increased again to values near 600 km/s around 08:00UT and 10:30UT. Bz undulated between -7 nT and + 6 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the Sun. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were recorded, with Kp reaching active levels during the 06-09UT interval. The extension of a positive northern polar CH around +25 degrees latitude has transited the central meridian.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an active episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Jan 2016

Wolf number Catania	078
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	059 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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