Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 February 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Feb 04 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Feb 2016	120	005
05 Feb 2016	125	006
06 Feb 2016	130	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has slightly increased, with seven lower C-class flares (strongest C1.8) during the past 24 hours. The NOAA active regions (AR) 2490 (Catania 16), 2492, 2493 and a region currently rounding the East limb were responsible for this activity. Two new (yet unnumbered) regions are developing quite rapidly, near S10E15 and S08W20. A filament eruption was observed SouthEast of the disk center from 8h UT on February 3. The associated CME only left near 16h UT (first observation LASCO/C2) and was very narrow. A rather faint and slow CME (245km/s estimated by CACTus) lifted off at 9h36 UT on February 3 (first measurement at LASCO/C2), propagating to the SouthWest. The source of this CME is currently unclear, but will be analyzed further. More flaring at the C-level is expected, with a slight chance for an M-class flare. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 450 km/s, showing a slight increase. The magnitude of the magnetic field was around 10 nT, with a mainly positive Bz component.

Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet (K=0-2), both at the local (Dourbes) and global level (NOAA estimate). This situation is expected to continue, with a slight chance for time slots of unsettled to active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 115, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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