Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Feb 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Feb 2016	105	021
18 Feb 2016	105	022
19 Feb 2016	105	007

Bulletin

Sixteen C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C9.4 flare which peaked at 5:01 UT on February 17. M flares (probability 50%) and C flares (probability 95%) are possible within the next 24 hours, especially from AR 2497. In the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed measured by ACE has increased from about 510 km/s towards a maximum of about 670 km/s around 20:30 UT on February 16. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has gradually decreased from 15 nT to current values of about 8 nT. This is consistent with the arrival of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream. Since 10h UT, the solar wind speed has decreased again to current values near 530 nT. Over the past 24 hours, quiet to minor geomagnetic storm levels were registered (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 3 and 6), as a combined effect of the interface region of the high speed stream and southward excursions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on February 17 and 18 under the influence of the high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on February 19.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	104
AK Chambon La Forêt	063
AK Wingst	042
Estimated Ap	045
Estimated international sunspot number	043 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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