Viewing archive of Friday, 4 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/0900Z from Region 2506 (S06W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Mar,
06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0302Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/1710Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 220 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Mar, 07 Mar)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 101 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 011/012-018/022-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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