Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 May 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 May 10 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2016	090	015
11 May 2016	091	009
12 May 2016	092	009

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a B8.1 class flare, produced by Active Region (AR) 2542 (Dai :Beta-Gamma), which peaked at 23:43 UT yesterday evening. There are three more NOAA ARs currently on the solar disk: AR 2541 (Axx:Alpha), AR 2543 (Dso:Beta) and AR 2544 (Gro:Beta). One returning region will appear at the East limb within next 24 hrs. A slow and relatively narrow Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected yesterday(21:24) which evolved from a small filament eruption occurred around 20:00 UT at the region adjacent to the AR 2542. It has small probability to hit the Earth around 14-Apr-16. One more insignificant filament eruption has been observed. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours with the probability of C-class flares around 50% from the AR 2542. The solar wind parameters started to recover from the influence of the negative coronal hole high speed stream. The speed decreased from around 700 km/s to 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. Simultaneously, the total magnetic field strength in solar wind has increased till around 6 nT, while Bz component of the magnetic field decreased till -6 nT and remained mostly negative. NOAA Kp index was ranged between 3 to 4, local K index Dourbes was ranged between 3 to 4. Conditions have meanwhile slightly decayed. Over the next 24 hrs solar wind conditions may continue to decrease.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	070
10cm solar flux	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	033
Estimated Ap	035
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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