Viewing archive of Monday, 20 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jun,
22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
averaged near 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0553Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1946Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 084 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 005/005-005/005-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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