Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 August 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Aug 18 1311 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Aug 2016	083	007
19 Aug 2016	081	011
20 Aug 2016	079	007

Bulletin

Solar activity is very low with no C-class flares reported during last 24 hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Four active regions are presently observed on the visible side of the solar disc. Their photospheric magnetic field configuration is simple (alpha configuration). Solar proton flux intensity is expected to lie within the background levels. We expect solar activity to remain low, with possibility of isolated C-class flares.

In the past 24 hours solar wind parameters variations were influenced most probably by the low latitude negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR varied between 450 and 380 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) first was around 10 nT until it started declining till around 4 nT ( at 12:00 UT on 18-Aug-2016). The Bz component fluctuated between +/-8 nT during the past 24 hours. The phi angle was mostly negative. The solar wind parameters variations are expected to decay. In the past 24 hours, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels were registered (K Doubes between 2 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Active levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on 20-Aug-2016 under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream, with a slight chance for a minor geomagnetic storm.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 048, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Aug 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	059 - Based on 36 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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