Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 August 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Aug 24 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Aug 2016	081	020
25 Aug 2016	081	015
26 Aug 2016	081	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been very low. The previously growing region 2579 stabilized and became inactive. The only flare of the period was a B2.5 flare peaking at 8:56UT from region 2580. Solar X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level. Solar proton fluxes are at background levels and expected to remain so. No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

In the first half of the reporting period solar wind showed a further increase in total magnetic field to over 13nT and an extended period of pronounced negative values of the southward magnetic field down to -13nT. In addition also solar wind speed increased steadily to over 600 km/s with peaks up to 700 km/s marking the expected arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream. Meanwhile, total magnetic field has declined to nominal values with Bz becoming variable while the solar wind speed remains elevated in the 500-600 km/s range. Over the next 24-48 hours we should see the decline of solar wind speed to nominal values.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (K Dourbes 5 for only an isolated period, while NOAA Kp=5 for three consecutive periods) around midnight, following the prolonged duration of pronounced negative Bz combined with the increase in solar wind speed. Over the morning, geomagnetic conditions have recovered to quiet to unsettled as magnetic field values decreased. As solar wind speed remains enhanced isolated periods of active conditions remain possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 050, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Aug 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	081
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	046 - Based on 36 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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