Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Oct 2016	078	013
19 Oct 2016	079	012
20 Oct 2016	080	017

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. there were no significant flares and all Active Regions (AR) have shown low levels of activity. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares. There is evidence in EUV imagery (EUV wave and dimming) of a small eruption at 21:10 UT on 2016-Oct-17, from AR 2602 (Mcintosh class:Cao; Mag. type:Beta). As the source is near disk centre it may produce a halo CME in coronagraph imagery. However, Coronagraph imagery for this period is currently unavailable. The size of the wave and the dimming indicate a small eruption, but possibly Earth directed, if significant a PRESTO will be issued. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around between 750 and 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-4 (NOAA) and local K index 2-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The enhanced solar wind speeds are associated with a High Speed Stream (HSS) from a large negative polarity Southern polar coronal hole located in the western hemisphere. As the hole rotates towards the limb the speed is expected to abate. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	024
10cm solar flux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	029 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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