Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 26 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2016	078	041
27 Oct 2016	077	034
28 Oct 2016	076	026

Bulletin

NOAA 2603 produced the strongest event of the period, a B1.9 peaking at 20:42UT. This region has now a mature but small trailing spot, and seems to have simplified magnetically. A strong coronal mass ejection (CME) over the northeast solar limb was observed in LASCO/C2 starting 25 October around 19:00UT. Its source was located on the farside of the Sun (old active region NOAA 2599). No earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected to continue, with a small chance on an isolated C-class flare.

Earth was under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from the huge coronal hole (CH). Maximum solar wind speeds near 830 km/s were recorded around 23UT on 25 October (DSCOVR), its current values now fluctuating between 670 and 750 km/s. Bz varied between -15 and +9 nT during the first half of the period, but is currently fluctuating between -6 and +6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was directed away from the Sun (positive). Kp ranged from active to major geomagnetic storming, while K Dourbes ranged from quiet conditions to moderate storming.

Wind speeds are expected to remain above 500 km/s for the next two days, with periods of sustained negative Bz possible. Hence, mostly unsettled to moderate storm conditions are expected, with a small chance on another major storming interval (K-index = 7).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	062
Estimated Ap	055
Estimated international sunspot number	018 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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