Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 December 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Dec 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Dec 2016	073	005
21 Dec 2016	073	011
22 Dec 2016	074	006

Bulletin

Solar activity was very quiet in the past 24 hours. No flares were observed. The only numbered NOAA active region (AR) 2619 observed on visible side of the solar disk has simple magnetic configuration. Another small sunspot group, observed this morning (20-Dec-2016) by UCCLE-USET, Locarno and Kanzelhohe Observatories, by its high latitude (-23 degrees) and reverse polarity belongs to the next solar cycle 25. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. The large equatorial coronal hole with the low latitude extend that crossed central meridian yesterday afternoon (18-Dec-2016) is expected to disturb significantly the geospace environment from tomorrow evening (21-Dec-2016). Solar proton flux intensity is expected to lie within the background levels. Solar activity is expected to be low with some probability for B-class flares. Variations of the solar wind parameters were very low. Total Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF) strength varied between 3 and 7 nT, while Bz varied between -3.5 and 3.5 nT. The solar wind speed decreased from 370 km/s till 340 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were ranged from quiet to moderate (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. We expect active conditions tomorrow evening (21-Dec-2016) due to expected arrival of the fast solar wind coming from the mentioned above large equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 025, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	021 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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