Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 January 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 05/1503Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 05/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
05/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1823 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 073 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 072/071/071 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 014/018-011/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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