Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 May 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one and two (11 May, 12 May) and expected to be very low with a
slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 10/0225Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
09/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/1254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 513 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 May, 12 May)
and quiet levels on day three (13 May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 069 Predicted 11 May-13 May 069/069/070 90 Day Mean 10 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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