Viewing archive of Monday, 14 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/1046Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug,
16 Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 636 km/s at 13/2107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1017 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 073 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-013/016-019/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 55% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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